philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician

PHILIP E. TETLOCK is Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania (School of Arts and Sciences and Wharton School). A vaccine whisperer is called in. When were locked in preacher mode, we are set on promoting our ideas (at the expense of listening to others). I think that we look to forecasters for ideological reassurance, we look to forecasters for . So argues Wharton professor Adam Grant in a fascinating new interview. He has written several non-fiction books at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior, including Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction; Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Such research, he says, can "deepen our understanding of how to generate realistic . Tetlock was born in 1954 in Toronto, Canada and completed his undergraduate work at the University of British Columbia and doctoral work at Yale University, obtaining his PhD in 1979. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78 (2000):853-870. And only when we are proven wrong so clearly that we can no longer deny it to ourselves will we adjust our mental models of the worldproducing a clearer picture of reality. These experts were then asked about a wide array of subjects. Study: Typically, researchers report new findings in scholarly journals and Tetlock (1998, 1999) has done so for of some part of the findings of his study. Richard Feynman (physicist): You must not fool yourselfand you are the easiest person to fool.. ", "From the commercial to the communal: Reframing taboo trade-offs in religious and pharmaceutical marketing", "Detecting and punishing unconscious bias", "Tetlock, P.E., Armor, D., & Peterson, R. (1994). So too do different mental jobs. We will stand on any soapbox to sell it with tremendous enthusiasm. Tetlock, P. E. (1994). This approach to teaching is problematic as it involves passive transmission of ideas from expert to student. [24][25][26][27] Rather, humans prefer to believe that they have sacred values that provide firm foundations for their moral-political opinions. 5 Jun. Harish uses a powerful combination of techniquescommon understandings, non-judgmental questions, flexible thinkingto win over some in the audience. Many beliefs are arbitrary and based on flimsy foundations. Escalation of commitment is another (psychological factor). The final part looks at rethinking at the institutional or group level. Alternatively, those wanting to get a good sense for the book without reading it cover to cover will profit from reading the introduction, Part 1, and the helpful appendix of practical takeaways titled Actions for Impact.. **Chapter 1: A Preacher, a Prosecutor, a Politician, and a Scientist ** Tetlock has been interested in forecasting since the 1980s, he says during an interview at his home in Philadelphia. He has published over 200 articles in peer-reviewed journals and has edited or written ten books.[1]. Good outcomes arent always the result of good decisions. We would shut down., Philip Tetlock,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Politicians work well in government settings. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated by any intelligent, thoughtful, determined person., Tetlock, who was born in Canada, attended university in his native country, at the University of British Columbia, where he completed his undergraduate degree in 1975 and his Masters degree in 1976.8He went on to do his doctoral studies at Yale, where he obtained his Ph.D. in psychology in 1979.9Since then, Tetlock has taught courses in management, psychology, and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, the Ohio State University, and the University of Pennsylvania, where he is a current faculty member.10Broadly, his research focuses on the evaluation of good judgment and the criteria used to assess judgment, bias, and error.11, In describing how we think and decide, modern psychologists often deploy a dual-system model that partitions our mental universe into two domains. Reply to symposium on Expert political judgment: How good is it? Chapter 5: Dances with Foes. Its not a matter of having low self-confidence. As Prosecutor, we automatically attack any ideas that don't f Psychological Review, 109, 451-472. The lesson is that he lacked flexibility in his thinking. Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Dont Know. Tetlock, R.N. Follow Philip Tetlock to get new release emails from Audible and Amazon. Tetlock, who was born in Canada, attended university in his native country, at the University of British Columbia, where he completed his undergraduate degree in 1975 and his Master's degree in 1976. When he tells you he has a hunch about how it is going to work, he is uncertain about it. Outrage goes viral and makes for better sound bites. The others were Politicians - currying favour to try and win approval from colleagues. Although he too occasionally adopts this reductionist view of political psychology in his work, he has also raised the contrarian possibility in numerous articles and chapters that reductionism sometimes runs in reverseand that psychological research is often driven by ideological agenda (of which the psychologists often seem to be only partly conscious). Forecast, measure, revise: it is the surest path to seeing better., Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. The second part explores how to encourage and influence other individuals to engage in rethinking. Tetlocks primary research interest, the question of what constitutes good judgment, is also his claim to fame. They look for information to update their thinking. Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. The pundits we all listen to are no better at predictions than a "dart-throwing chimp," and they are routinely surpassed by normal news-attentive citizens. They give examples of successful and unsuccessful decision-making processes, none more diametrically opposed as two US Army missions. Grants solution is an idea he calls rethinking. Rethinking is the process of doubting what you know, being curious about what you dont know, and updating your thinking based on new evidence (in other words, the scientific method). Express curiosity with questions like so you dont see any merit in this proposal at all?, Express their feelings about the process and their opponents feelings, e.g. Scientist: Grant appends this professional worldview to Tetlocks mindset models. Tetlock, P.E., & Mitchell, G. (2009). Still, Tetlock has gone beyond journal articles, turning to a If you dont change your mind frequently, youre going to be wrong a lot.. how long does sacher torte last. The illusion of explanatory depth: We think we know more about things than we really do. and comparison of domestic politics across countries. Harish must argue the unpopular position of being against subsidies (most of the audience starts with their minds made up for subsidies). One finding: framing issues as binary (i.e. [19], Tetlock uses a different "functionalist metaphor" to describe his work on how people react to threats to sacred valuesand how they take pains to structure situations so as to avoid open or transparent trade-offs involving sacred values. Part IV: Conclusion Nuance is not rewarded by the attention economy. By contrast, System 1 is largely a stranger to us. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. Author recommends twice a year personal checkups: opportunities to reassess your current pursuits, whether your current desires still align with your plans, and whether its time to pivot. Philip Tetlock: It virtually always influences how people make decisions, but it's not always good. How do we know what we know, and how do we know if were right? Opening story: Daryl Davis is a musician and a Black man. 1993-1994 Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford. In each of the three mindsets, the truth takes a back seat to other considerations: being right, defending your beliefs, and currying favor. Alternative view: intelligence is the ability to rethink and unlearn, i.e. Philip Tetlock (author of 'Super-Forecasting', reviewed in this column) has a useful description of the mindsets we tend to slip into, to avoid rethinking ideas. American Psychologist. 1993-1995 Distinguished Professor, University of California, Berkeley. Opening story: International debate champion Harish Natarajan vs. Debra Jo Prectet (later revealed to be a computer AI). Lebow &G. Parker (eds) Unmaking the West: What-If Scenarios that Rewrite World History. [14] In a 2009 essay, Tetlock argues that much is still unknown about how psychologically deep the effects of accountability runfor instance, whether it is or is not possible to check automatic or implicit association-based biases,[15] a topic with legal implications for companies in employment discrimination class actions. As if at some point you become something and thats the end., Kids might be better off learning about careers as actions to take rather than as identities to claim.. Tetlock, P.E., &Lebow, R.N. As if growing up is finite. He covers a variety of topics, including the qualities he looks for in a good leader, whether it is becoming more difficult to make predictions about the world, and what we are able to infer from political speeches. What adverse side effects can such de-biasing efforts have on quality of decision-making. Plan ahead to determine where they can find common ground. [Adam Grant]: Two decades ago, I read a brilliant paper by Phil Tetlock, who introduced me to this idea of thinking like a preacher, a prosecutor or a politician. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); document.getElementById( "ak_js_2" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Your email address will not be published. Think Again is structured into three main parts. the usefulness of hypothetical-society experiments in disentangling fact and value judgments of the impact of competing policy proposals. Search for truth through testing hypotheses, running experiments, and uncovering new truths. Enjoyed the inclusion of visuals: humorous cartoons, diagrams, and charts. Status is gained by holding the purest expression of these views. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, He is the author of three books: Expert Political Judgment: How The authors stress that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods. Tetlock's advice for people who want to become better forecasters is to be more open-minded and attempt to strip out cognitive biases, like Neil Weinstein's unrealistic optimism. Desirability bias: The tendency to act in a manner that enhances your acceptance or approval from others. How Can We Know? Being aware of these can dramatically change the approach we take for ourselves and our audience. When we dedicate ourselves to a plan and it isnt going as we hoped, our first instinct isnt usually to rethink it. Even criticize them. How Can We Know? It requires us to admit that the facts may have changed, that what was once right may now be wrong.. Apparently, "even the most opinionated hedgehogs become more circumspect"[9] when they feel their accuracy will soon be compared to that of ideological rivals. How Do We Know? Superforecasting by Penguin Random House. As a result of this work, he received the 2008 University of Louisville Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order, as well as the 2006 Woodrow Wilson Award for best book published on government, politics, or international affairs and the Robert E. Lane Award for best book in political psychology, both from the American Political Science Association in 2005. Tetlock's research program over the last four decades has explored five themes: In his early work on good judgment, summarized in Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Home; Uncategorized; philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician Rethinking is not only an individual skill, its also an organizational one. Binary thinking results in fewer opportunities for finding common ground. Tetlock, P.E., Kristel, O., Elson, B., Green M., &Lerner, J. Terms in this set (50) freedom and equality. [20][21][22][23] Real-world implications of this claim are explored largely in business-school journals such as the Journal of Consumer Research, California Management Review, and Journal of Consumer Psychology. Organizational culture can either foster or inhibit rethinking. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. Tetlock, P.E., (2000). He dubbed these people superforecasters. So Philip Tetlock reported in his 02005 book, Expert Political Judgement and in a January 02007 SALT talk. Realistically, Grant could have turned each section into three separate bookshe covers a lot of ground that could benefit from greater depth. Use a steel man (instead of straw man) and consider your opponents strongest argument. Her research focuses on decision-making, specifically, the variables that influence the decisions we make that are often excluded from rational models of decision-making, such as emotions and the effects of context.15He has also collaborated with Dan Gardner, who works at the University of Ottawas Graduate School of Public Policy and International Affairs.16In addition to lecturing on risk, forecasting, and decision-making, Gardner offers consulting services to enable people to become better decision-makers, with one of his clients being none other than the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau.17Gardner has also worked as a journalist and author18and he pennedSuperforecasting: The Art and Science of Predictionalong with Tetlock. The more pessimistic tone of Expert Political Judgment (2005) and optimistic tone of Superforecasting (2015) reflects less a shift in Tetlocks views on the feasibility of forecasting than it does the different sources of data in the two projects. The incident was a powerful reminder that we need to reevaluate our assumptions and determine how we arrived at them. David Dunning: The first rule of the Dunning-Kruger club is that you dont know youre a member of the Dunning-Kruger club.. Princeton University Press, 2005. Administrative Science Quarterly 45 (2000), 293-326. In the same study that yielded these somewhat sobering findings, however, Tetlock noticed that a few experts stood out from the crowd and demonstrated real foresight. The person most likely to persuade you to change your mind is you. Walk into Your Mind. Prosecutors work well in a courtroom. We dont just hesitate to rethink our answers. If necessary, discuss your orders. Motivational interviewing: The best approach to changing someones mind is to help that person make the change on their own. 9 Since then, Tetlock has taught courses in ktvu roberta gonzales, michael dudzik school board, nimbin hash cookies,

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